Differentiated Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative: A Comparative Analysis of Macroeconomic and Project-Level Outcomes in Kenya and Egypt

Abstract

This paper provides a comparative empirical study to examine the differentiated impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on macroeconomic and project-level outcomes in Kenya and Egypt from 2010 to 2024. Using data from the World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI), International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (WEO), World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI) surveys, AidData project-level, and the Boston University Global Development Policy Center Chinese Loans to Africa database, the paper focuses on five main variables: GDP growth, trade volume, foreign direct investment, logistics performance, and government debt sustainability. The findings reveal divergent trajectories. Kenya experienced significant infrastructure investment via the Standard Gauge Railway, contributing to improved logistics scores in the mid-period (peaking at 3.33 in 2016) and sustained GDP growth averaging 4.9 percent annually, but also a near-doubling of government debt relative to GDP from approximately 38 percent in 2010 to 72.8 percent by 2024. Egypt, the first African country to sign a BRI memorandum in 2013, recorded stronger average GDP growth post-signature, yet faces elevated public debt (90.1 percent of GDP at end-FY2024) and structural vulnerabilities compounded by BRI-linked borrowing. LPI scores declined in both countries between 2016 and 2023, raising questions about the durability of logistics gains. The paper argues that aggregate macroeconomic indicators are insufficient to assess the BRI's impact. To address this gap, the study employs project-level Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to triangulate localized financial and institutional realities with national accounts, isolating initiative-specific effects from broader economic dynamics.