Confederation or Cooperation? Pakistan Bangladesh Relations in a Changing South Asian Order

Abstract

The history between Pakistan and Bangladesh remains defined by old animosity and historical unresolved issues and the disparate national path between the two states, but the concept of confederation as a tool of regional reconciliation in South Asia is periodically resurrected through the rhetoric of politics and strategic debate. The current literature mostly addresses such relation rather in terms of conflict and estrangement and there is no extensive analysis of whether confederation is feasible as compared to other ways of engaging in the modern geopolitical environment. To fill this gap, the paper uses qualitative historical and political analysis, which relies on historical records, political rhetoric and the discourse of regional security to assess the structural, politics and social conditions that such an arrangement needs, and evaluates common historical experiences, regional economic complementarities, and regional dynamics and common challenges of identity, sovereignty and grievance. The results show that a formal confederation is an extremely unrealistic possibility in the foreseeable future because of the entrenched and enduring political sensitivities and more and more divergent national trajectories; still, gradual collaboration in commerce, connectivity, and multilateral participation can be an efficient and opportune alternative that can restore bilateral relations and some form of constructive collaboration, which can be part of wider debates on post-conflict reconciliation and the changing structure of cooperation in South Asia.