Gulf Power Shift: Arms, Oil, and the New Middle East Order

Abstract

This paper explores the partial power shift in the Gulf region within the changing geopolitical landscape of the Middle East which is being influenced by the overlap of energy transitions, arms existences and great power politics. Based on the neo-realist and political economy approaches, this paper analyzes how key regional actors, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Qatar, are again rebalancing their strategic actions in the face of a falling dependency upon external security guarantees, and a fluctuating hydrocarbon market. These results indicate that a slow move towards renewable energy and fluctuating oil prices are restructuring rentier state models, and incentivizing economic diversification and activism in international politics. Simultaneously, growing military spending and the rise in native defense-industrial sector are pointers to a shift to strategic autonomy and deterrence in an emerging multi-polar environment. The argument in the article is that the Gulf is shifting to a hybrid order that is characterized by strategic hedging, partnership diversification, and intricate interdependence driven by US-China rivalry and regional competition.