Caught in the Crossfire: Estonian Vulnerability to Russian-Ukrainian Cyberwarfare

Abstract

This paper reviews Estonia's vulnerabilities to cyberwarfare, especially those arising out of the the paper will explain the Russia-Ukraine conflict that is ongoing, with the theories of Defensive Realism and the Security Dilemma framework by Robert Jervis. As a digital frontrunner, a member of NATO and the EU, Estonia is a prime target for cyber aggression, especially from Russia, due to its critical role in regional security and digital infrastructure. The study introduces the Crossfire Cyber Vulnerability Framework, a new tool developed specifically to assess Estonia's cyber risks and provide actionable recommendations for improving its resilience in the face of possible cyber threats. Results indicate that the steps taken by Estonia to protect its digital environment are indispensable but at the same time make the country more vulnerable to further cyberattacks because very often aggressive behavior by opponents is a response to defensive measures. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the challenges of small states in the digital era and provides strategic insights into mitigating cyber vulnerabilities to ensure that Estonia is well-versed in the complex dynamics of cyber warfare.